Bitazza Crypto Weekly: Analysts see a high probability of the U.S. SEC approving a Bitcoin ETF -

Analysts see a high probability of the U.S. SEC approving a Bitcoin ETF

Bloomberg analysts predict that the approval of a Spot Bitcoin ETF is highly likely, with approximately 90% chance that such a product will be approved by January 10, 2024. Recent updates from ARK and 21 Shares on their Spot Bitcoin ETF applications indicate that there is positive engagement with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).

The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has no plans to appeal a ruling related to Grayscale Investments’ attempt to convert their GBTC fund into a Spot Bitcoin ETF. However, this does not necessarily mean that the SEC will approve a Bitcoin ETF in the near future.

BlackRock has come out to deny that a Bitcoin ETF has been approved by the U.S. SEC, stating that it is still under consideration. Meanwhile, the CEO of the major asset management company mentioned that the surge in Bitcoin following the news suggests a significant public interest in the approval of a Bitcoin ETF.

Standard Chartered Bank predicts that Ethereum’s price could surge to $8,000 by 2026, marking a fivefold increase from its current price. This is largely attributed to its lead in smart contract technology and tokenization, in addition to the potential establishment of an ETH Spot ETF. The bank also speculates that the price of Ethereum could reach $4,000 by 2024.

Hedge fund giant Paul Tudor Jones stated that the combination of significant geopolitical risks and the rising level of U.S. government debt make it a difficult time to invest in stocks. Instead, Bitcoin and gold are currently attractive options. He also highlighted that the fiscal position of the U.S. is the weakest it’s been since World War II.

The Lightning Network has seen a significant growth of approximately 1,212% over the past two years, with around 6.6 million transactions recorded in August this year. This is a substantial increase when compared to the 503,000 transactions recorded in August 2022, despite a decrease in Bitcoin prices.

DappRadar has revealed that net investments in blockchain games during the first three quarters of 2023 amounted to $2.3 billion, which is only around 30% of the value seen in the same period last year. Of this amount, about $213 million is related to the development of metaverse-related games and technology.

Mastercard has completed experiments related to wrapping digital currencies of central banks, or CBDC, on different blockchains. Their solution allows CBDC owners to purchase NFT tokens on the Ethereum blockchain. They initiated this trial with the Central Bank of Australia.

JPMorgan has introduced a tokenization application that utilizes blockchain technology within the organization called Tokenized Collateral Network (TCN). BlackRock is one of its major clients, enabling the transfer of various assets between banks through the use of blockchain.

Weekly Technical Analysis: 17-23 October 2023

Bitcoin (BTC)

BTC’s price surged, touching $30,000 before experiencing a decline due to the U.S. SEC’s ongoing delay in approving a Bitcoin ETF. If it can break through the resistance at $28,600, there may be another chance to test the $30,000 level. However, if it doesn’t pass, keep an eye on the support at $27,000.

Ethereum (ETH)

ETH has exhibited a correlation with BTC, yet its trend remains relatively subdued. Monitoring the $1,500 support level is paramount for the current week. At the same time, the $1,700 resistance level continues to serve as a pivotal gauge for assessing the potential for a bullish price trend reversal. Short-term trading strategies should prioritize capturing profits within the existing price range.

Band Protocol (BAND)

BAND has surged 29.7% in the past week, demonstrating a relatively rapid price increase, necessitating increased caution in trading. It is essential to monitor the support level at 48 Baht. To maintain the bullish trend, it’s advisable not to deviate from this price. If the continuity holds, there will be short-term profit-taking resistance at 56 Baht.

Klaytn (KLAY)

Klaytn has recorded a 5.7% increase over the past week, maintaining an upward trajectory. A “Buy On Dip” strategy is recommended at the support level of 4.60 Baht, with short-term profit-taking resistance at 4.90 Baht. If the price continues to form higher lows and establishes new highs, the upward trend is likely to persist.

Trading and Investment Considerations For The Week

The recent disclosure of the details of the Federal Reserve’s latest meeting suggests that the majority of the committee believes that another interest rate hike is warranted at the next meeting. They also emphasize the need for a continued tight monetary policy until they are confident that inflation is trending toward the 2% target. The FED Dot Plot indicates that two out of three committee members believe that another rate hike is necessary before the end of the year.

Furthermore, the announcement of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for September, coming in at 3.7%, exceeded the expected 3.6%. This has led to a strengthening of the U.S. dollar and increases the likelihood of another interest rate hike at the upcoming FED meeting in early November.

It’s essential to keep an eye on the ongoing conflict between Israel and Hamas, as if it continues to escalate, it may exert sustained upward pressure on oil prices and potentially impact inflation, prompting the U.S. central bank to maintain high-interest rates.

Regarding the SEC’s stance, it appears that they might not oppose the Grayscale Investments’ attempt to convert the GBTC fund into a Spot Bitcoin ETF. This could potentially increase the chances of a Bitcoin ETF being approved in the future, although short-term market impact may be limited until actual approval occurs.

It is expected that the market will remain relatively sideways for the time being, possibly until the U.S. SEC makes a decision on ARK Invest’s application for a Bitcoin ETF, which should be finalized in January 2024. This timeline represents the final deadline, and the announcement of approval or rejection will have significant implications for subsequent applications.

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