Data from BitEye, CoinGecko, and Wu Blockchain indicates that meme coins have generated the highest returns in the first half of 2024, reaching 1,834%. The second highest returns were from RWA (real-world asset) tokens, with 214%. They were followed by AI blockchains with 72%, and DePIN (decentralized physical infrastructure networks) with 59% during the same period.
Layer-1 blockchains achieved 53% in returns, followed by GameFi with 19%, while the DeFi (decentralized finance) sector only returned 3%. Layer-2 blockchains suffered a significant decline of nearly 41% in the first half of the year.
For leading cryptocurrencies, Ethereum achieved returns close to 50%, while Bitcoin returned 45% during the same period.
Bloomberg ETF analysts noted that the launch of the Spot Ethereum ETFs might be delayed from the initially expected date of July 2, as the US SEC has requested all applicants to resubmit their S-1 documents by July 8, potentially pushing the launch up to late July.
Charles Yu, Vice President of Research at Galaxy Digital, stated that within the first five months after trading of the Spot Ethereum ETFs begins, investment inflows into Ethereum could increase approximately 20-50% or more, translating to around 3-7.5 billion USD. This could be compared to Bitcoin’s inflows of about 15.1 billion USD after the spot ETFs were launched in January.
Bitwise estimates that the Spot Ethereum ETFs will attract net inflows of 15 billion USD within the first 18 months, based on market cap comparisons between Bitcoin and Ethereum, and projections of converting products like Grayscale’s Ethereum Trust (ETHE) into an ETF.
21Shares and VanEck have applied to establish the Spot Solana ETF with the US SEC, to be traded on the Cboe BZX Exchange with Coinbase as the custodian. The ETF assets will be held in separate wallets on the Solana blockchain, with no staking involved.
Mt. Gox, which suffered a hack in 2014, losing over 850,000 BTC valued at approximately 51.9 billion USD, is set to start returning Bitcoin and Bitcoin Cash to creditors from July onwards. The total amount of bitcoin to be returned is valued at over 9.4 billion USD, affecting around 127,000 creditors who have been waiting for over a decade.
Weekly Technical Analysis: July 2-8 2024
Bitcoin (BTC)
BTC has dropped significantly due to the Mt. Gox news, but the support level at 60,000 USD remains strong. This week, there is a chance for a price recovery. However, if it falls below 60,000 USD, the key support level will be 56,000 USD. The short-term resistance is at 65,000 USD, and breaking through this could test the upper range at 72,000 USD.
- Support: 2,100,000 THB / 56,000 USD
- Resistance: 2,600,000 THB / 72,000 USD
Ethereum (ETH)
ETH has seen a smaller decline compared to BTC as it awaits the approval of Spot Ethereum ETFs, which has a high likelihood of being greenlit. Accumulation is advisable, with caution around the support level at 3,300 USD. If approval is confirmed, the price could surge to its resistance mark at 4,000 USD, and breaking this level could signal a bullish trend.
- Support: 104,000 THB / 3,300 USD
- Resistance: 144,000 THB / 4,000 USD
Ethereum Name Service (ENS)
ENS has seen its value increase by 23.17% over the past week, breaking through the key resistance at 27 USD. This price can be used as short-term support. If there is a pullback, the short-term profit-taking target is at the resistance level of 36 USD.
- Support: 1,000 THB / 27 USD
- Resistance: 1,400 THB / 36 USD
Raydium (RAY)
RAY has surged by 21.06% in the past week. The price trend is breaking out from the sideways range, with the short-term resistance target at 2.20 USD. The support level is at 1.20 USD, and if it falls below this, a stop-loss is recommended as the recovery trend could be broken.
- Support: 48 THB / 1.20 USD
- Resistance: 80 THB / 2.20 USD
Trading and Investment Considerations For The Week
The US Q1 economic data matched expectations at 1.4% growth, and the US presidential candidates’ debate did not address cryptocurrency policies, leaving the market awaiting positive factors from the next debate round.
Last week, the cryptocurrency market was pressured by the Mt. Gox case, where Bitcoin was returned to creditors, who held it at a lower cost. The price impact is expected to be minimal as the amount of BTC returned to creditors is not substantial.
This week, key macroeconomic highlights include the US Federal Reserve Chair’s speech on economic and monetary policy outlook on July 2, followed by the release of the previous Federal Reserve meeting minutes on July 3.
On July 5, the non-farm payroll figures will be released, expected at 189,000 positions, down from the previous month’s 272,000, along with the unemployment rate, expected to remain at 4%.
Historically, if Bitcoin prices decline in June, they tend to recover by double digits in July. However, attention should be given to the progress of the Spot Ethereum ETF approval, expected in mid-July rather than early July, which is likely to have a positive impact on the market, especially on other altcoins.
Watch for coins positively impacted by liquid staking (staking to solve liquidity issues) and layer-1 blockchains like Solana, which is also being considered for a Spot ETF.
References
- https://cointelegraph.com/news/most-profitable-crypto-sectors-first-half-2024-revealed
- https://cointelegraph.com/news/sec-delays-ethereum-etf-launch-to-mid-july
- https://www.theblock.co/post/302396/galaxy-digital-sees-up-to-7-5-billion-flowing-into-eth-etfs-within-first-five-months
- https://cointelegraph.com/news/ethereum-spot-etfs-could-attract-15b-by-end-of-2025-bitwise-cio
- https://cointelegraph.com/news/21shares-spot-solana-etf-sec
- https://cointelegraph.com/news/mt-gox-trustee-start-bitcoin-bitcoin-cash-repayments
Disclaimers
- Cryptocurrencies and digital tokens are highly risky; investors may lose all investment money. Investors should study information carefully and make investments according to their own risk profile.
- Past returns or performance of digital assets do not guarantee future returns or performance.
Remark: views, information, knowledge and opinions are considered as contents that come from individuals involved. They do not constitute an expression of Bitazza and its employees. Neither email nor content presented constitutes the investment advice.
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