Bitcoin Halving Done, Bull Market Awaits -

On April 20th, the fourth Bitcoin Halving occurred successfully at block 840,000, mined by ViaBTC. This block contained 3,050 transactions, with total fees amounting to 37.6256 BTC, valued at approximately US$2,401,399.

JPMorgan predicts that Bitcoin prices might decline after the halving, as the event may have already been priced into the current market. Additionally, Bitcoin remains overbought, as indicated by the high open interest in futures contracts.

Bitwise revealed historical data indicating that Bitcoin prices typically experience minor fluctuations for about a month after a halving event. However, in subsequent years, returns tend to reach triple-digit levels. In 2020, Bitcoin prices increased by only 6% in the first month following the halving, and then surged by 548% in the following year.

Blackrock’s Spot Bitcoin ETF, known as iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT), is closing the gap with Grayscale’s Bitcoin Trust ETF (GBTC) in terms of market share. IBIT currently holds a 32.6% market share, which is still behind GBTC’s 36.8%, as investors continue to sell Bitcoin through GBTC. Currently, BlackRock’s ETF holds US$16.8 billion in Bitcoin, trailing GBTC by just US$2.2 billion.

Grayscale is confident in other cryptocurrency ETFs being approved in the future besides Bitcoin, as global regulatory bodies gain more confidence in the space. This follows the successful launch and initial performance of Spot Bitcoin ETFs, which have proven to be among the most successful ETFs listed on the stock market.

The DeFi Report disclosed that Ethereum’s Q1 2024 revenue nearly doubled, reaching a 200% increase with a profit of US$123 million in Q4 2023. This was due to a significant uptick in DeFi activity.

The total value locked (TVL) in DeFi reached US$97 billion in Q1 2024, nearly doubling from the previous quarter. The primary drivers of this growth were Lido and EigenLayer, which are protocols specializing in liquid restaking.

Token holders of FET, AGIX, and OCEAN have approved a merger under the new name “Artificial Superintelligence Alliance” (ASI), with a combined valuation of US$7.5 billion. The official launch is scheduled for May 24.

Worldcoin is set to launch a Layer 2 blockchain called World Chain to improve efficiency and welcome new users. The network is expected to go live this summer.

Weekly Technical Analysis: 23 – 29 April 2024

Bitcoin (BTC)

BTC pulled back to a support level at TH฿2,200,000 baht, towards a continuous recovery. If it can break through the next resistance level at TH฿2,517,000, it will confirm a reversal, which could be tested at the TH฿2,600,000 resistance. However, if the price drops below the previous support of TH฿2,200,000, caution is advised, and investing should be delayed.

Support: TH฿2,200,000 Resistance: TH฿2,600,000

Support: US$59,600 Resistance: US$71,000

Ethereum (ETH)

ETH hit a new low at TH฿106,000, but buying pressure has returned, and the price is shaping into an upward trend. The first resistance is at TH฿122,000. If this level is breached, there’s a chance it could re-test its previous high. Set a stop loss if the price drops below the previous low of TH฿106,000.

Support: TH฿106,000 THB Resistance: TH฿122,000 THB

Support: US$2,850 Resistance: US$3,400

Velo (VELO)

VELO climbed by 48.04% over the past week, indicating a continuing upward trend. The recommended strategy is to buy on dips. Watch the first support level—if the price dips to TH฿0.600, it could be a buying opportunity. The first resistance target for profit taking is at TH฿0.800.

Support: TH฿0.600 Resistance: TH฿0.800

Near Protocol (NEAR)

NEAR has risen by 20.57% over the past week, suggesting a reversal into an upward trend. The first resistance target is set at TH฿275, which could confirm a sustained uptrend. If the price dips, the support level at TH฿215 could serve as an entry point. However, if it fails to hold this support, it would be best to cut losses and exit the trade.

Support: TH฿215 Resistance: TH฿275

Support: US$5.81 Resistance: US$7.44

Trading and Investment Considerations For The Week

Following the Bitcoin halving on April 20, there hasn’t been a significant impact on Bitcoin’s price. However, the conflict between Iran and Israel didn’t escalate, allowing Bitcoin’s price to recover. At the same time, altcoins have rebounded at a faster pace.

Data from Tradingview shows that the Bitcoin Dominance index has declined while the Total3 index, representing altcoins, has risen. This shift could signal a revival in the altcoin market’s activity and enthusiasm.

On April 25, the United States will release its economic forecast for the next quarter. The market expects a 2.5% growth rate, down from the previous quarter’s 3.4%. If the results align with these expectations, it could be beneficial for the market, as a slower economy might prompt the Federal Reserve to consider cutting interest rates.

This week, the first-quarter financial results for major U.S. tech stocks, including Tesla, Alphabet, Microsoft, and Meta Platforms, will be announced. These results can significantly impact U.S. stock market indices. If there’s a sell-off in tech stocks, it might influence some investors to sell Bitcoin as well, since there’s been a high correlation between Bitcoin and the stock market recently.

As the conflict between Iran and Israel is not resolved yet, volatility remains a concern. Keep an eye on Bitcoin; if it falls below the US$59,600 level, it could continue to decline. The current recommended strategy is to consider short-term trading.

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