The fourth Bitcoin halving, which will cut the new daily mining supply in half, is expected to happen on April 20. Investors and gurus are monitoring the price of Bitcoin to determine whether it will reach a new high after the halving. However, potential conflict between Iran and Israel has strongly affected market sentiment, causing the price of Bitcoin to retract strongly last week.
Hong Kong regulators are expected to greenlight Spot Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs, managed by a subsidiary of Harvest Fund Management from China and Bosera Asset Management, in partnership with HashKey Capital. They are likely to be the first two ETFs to receive approval, with plans to launch by the end of April.
Jan van Eck, CEO of VanEck expects Ethereum ETFs to be rejected by the US SEC in May. Meanwhile, Bloomberg ETF analysts have lowered the approval probability of Spot Ethereum ETFs in May from 70% to 30%.
VanEck, one of the fund managers, managing the Bitcoin Spot ETF, reveals that traditional investors in money & equity markets have not yet invested in Bitcoin ETFs. Although there are some large entities and institutional investors, overall, 90% of ETF investors are still individuals. At present, there are no US banks officially approved or licensed as financial advisors for Bitcoin.
Bybit has released its analysis showing that Bitcoin’s supply on CEX (centralized exchanges) is likely to be completely wiped out within the next 9 months due to the fourth halving. Currently, there are only 2 million BTC left on the exchange with roughly $500 million in daily inflows from Bitcoin ETFs, estimated at 7,142 BTC.
CryptoQuant reports that buying momentum for Bitcoin ETFs has slowed over a four-week period after a peak in March. Only Grayscale and BlackRock ETFs saw capital inflows over the weekend.
The latest analysis of Intotheblock reveals that Ethereum’s Layer 2 usage after the Dencun upgrade has increased by 196%, with Base taking the lead with 57% of transactions, followed by Arbitium and Optimism with 31% and 11% respectively.
Weekly Technical Analysis: 16 – 22 April 2024
Bitcoin (BTC)
BTC fell to US$60,600, although it did not hit a new low yet. However, the price trend is still weak. We should keep an eye on the support price to see if it drops lower, as the price trend has a chance to fall further. Inversely, the trend could see a sign of improvement if it can pass the resistance price of US$ 67,000.
Support: TH฿ 2,200,000 Resistance: TH฿ 2,520,000.
Support: US$ 60,600 Resistance: US$ 67,000.
Ethereum (ETH)
ETH has been experiencing strong sell pressure which, along with decreasing chances of an Ethereum ETF approval, has contributed to gradual price decline. Market participants maintain focus on a short-term support price of US$ 3,000. Should prices fall below this support level, market participants may seek to delay investments until price recovery. However, if ETH passes the resistance price of US$ 3,300 and continues to stay above, positive market sentiment may drive buy pressure.
Support: TH฿ 108,000 Resistance: TH฿ 122,000.
Support: US$ 3,000 Resistance: US$ 3,300.
Binance (BNB)
BNB dropped 5.84% in the past week. The overall market outlook has declined slightly, while the prices are projected to maintain an upward trend. In the short term, market participants maintain a watchful eye on the support price of TH฿ 18,400. If it holds, some market participants may see this as a signal to buy at a short-term resistance price of TH฿ 22,000.
Support: TH฿ 18,400 Resistance: TH฿ 22,000.
Tron (TRX)
TRX fell 8.72% last week. The price has reached the important support level of TH฿ 4.00. This support price may see further negative price movement if broken. However, if support levels hold, market participants may consider taking short-term profits at the resistance price of TH฿ 4.35.
Support: TH฿ 4.00 Resistance: TH฿ 4.35 baht.
Trading and Investment Considerations For The Week
US inflation in March was slightly higher than expected at 3.3%, which also impacted Bitcoin prices. Recently, the Federal Reserve Chair revealed that there is still no sign for inflation slowing down in the US, causing further tightening of monetary policy.
US government bond yields and the US dollar currency continue to strengthen due to concerns about the war between Iran and Israel. This allows capital flows to be reinvested in US government bonds to reduce the risk of price depression.
The war situation is expected to worsen, and have a negative impact on the price of Bitcoin. In particular, investors buying Bitcoin through ETFs, similar to investors in the stock market, will sell to adjust their portfolios. If the war is not severe, but prolonged, it may have negative effects only in the short term.
The Bitcoin Dominance Index surges to a 3-year high, pushing down altcoin prices across the market. Some categories like artificial intelligence (AI) and Layer-1 blockchains are still showing strength. It is recommended to avoid investing in altcoins at the moment.
The Bitcoin halving on April 20 is expected to have some impact on the price. The main factor is still the Iran-Israeli war situation. If the price of Bitcoin drops below US$ 60,000, a further correction may occur. But if the price can still be maintained, there will be another chance to revisit Bitcoin’s all time high (ATH).
Reference:
https://cointelegraph.com/news/retail-investors-bitcoin-etf-vaneck
https://cryptopotato.com/ethereum-layer-2-transaction-explosion-200-surge-post-dencun-upgrade/
https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-supply-run-out-exchanges-9-months
https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-price-falls-under-62k-amid-wavering-spot-btc-etf-demand
You might also like
More from Crypto Weekly
Memecoins Top Charts with Best Returns of Q1
CoinGecko reported memecoins achieving the highest returns in the first quarter of 1,312.6%, surpassing second-placed RWA (real world asset) tokens …
Staking Investment Firm’s Features Fuels Interest in Ethereum ETFs
Larry Fink, Blackrock's CEO, expressed his belief that a Spot Ethereum ETF will eventually be approved, despite the SEC's classification …
Ethereum Spot ETF Awaits Approval by End of May
The United States SEC has postponed its decision on whether to approve Ethereum Spot ETF applications from all filers, including …
