Bitcoin Rockets to $57K with Supporting Factors

Matrixport estimates that the price of Bitcoin may reach $63,000 within March. Factors such as the Bitcoin ETFs, the upcoming Bitcoin halving, the Federal Reserve potentially reducing interest rates in the latter half of the year, and the outcome of the United States presidential election could all impact monetary policies.

JPMorgan reports that retail investors were a significant driving force behind the upward surge of Bitcoin in February. Data indicates that most of Bitcoin’s movements came from small-sized wallets, including upward adjustments of altcoins as well as meme coins.

BitMEX Research reveals that withdrawals from the GBTC fund reached $44.2 million on February 23rd, marking the lowest daily outflow since the fund’s conversion to an ETF. Total withdrawals since the inception of GBTC have amounted to $7.4 billion, while other funds have seen continuous inflows.

The open interest from Bitcoin futures on centralized exchanges has surged to its highest level since November 2021, reaching $229 billion. Since the beginning of 2024, Bitcoin futures’ open interest has increased by over 30%, aligning with the growth in Bitcoin’s price.

MicroStrategy has added another 3,000 BTC to its holdings, spending $155 million at an average price of $51,813 per Bitcoin. This purchase brings the company’s total Bitcoin holdings to 193,000 BTC, with a total value of $6.09 billion, at an average price of $31,544 per Bitcoin.

James Seyffart, an analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence specializing in ETFs, believes there is little chance of an Ethereum ETF launching in March this year. However, it’s possible that approval could be granted later, in 2024.

Analysts at S&P Global suggest that if a Spot Ethereum ETF is approved, fund managers may opt not to choose Lido Finance, the largest validator on the Ethereum staking platform, for their ETH staking needs. Instead, they might prefer to use custodian services provided by financial institutions.

Data from DefiLlama shows that the total value locked (TVL) on Solana has returned to near its previous all-time high of $1.9 billion. The TVL has expanded by 244% over the past 3 months. In the last 30 days, it has seen stronger growth compared to other chains like Ethereum (ETH) and Binance Smart Chain (BSC).

The price of the Uniswap token surged by over 50% following a proposal from the Uniswap Foundation to provide rewards for UNI token holders who stake and delegate their tokens. Additionally, Uniswap introduced a subdomain, Uni.eth, leveraging the Ethereum Name Service infrastructure.

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Weekly Technical Analysis: 28 February – 3 March 2024

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Bitcoin (BTC)

BTC has surged to 2,045,000 THB, signaling a potential uptrend with resistance expected around 2,100,000 THB. It’s advisable for short-term traders to gradually sell for profit as the market approaches this level, anticipating a consolidation phase. Support is estimated at around 1,900,000 THB, providing opportunities for gradual re-entry. The overall trend remains bullish.

Support : 49,000 USD Resistance : 59,000 USD

Ethereum (ETH)

ETH has surpassed the 108,000 THB mark, indicating potential further upside after its returns have closely followed BTC’s movements. The target for this round is around 120,000 THB. Meanwhile, if there’s a pullback, support is anticipated at around 100,500 THB, presenting a buying opportunity. The trend is expected to remain bullish, with the potential for further upward adjustments.

Support : 2,800 USD Resistance : 3,600 USD

Uniswap (UNI)

UNI has surged by 37.16% over the past week, with prices showing a relatively strong upward adjustment, possibly requiring some time for consolidation. Looking for entry points around the support level of 360 baht seems prudent. The trend appears bullish; consider selling for profit around the previous resistance at 460 baht. Buying the dips might be a good strategy.

Support : 10 USD Resistance : 13 USD

Compound (COMP)

COMP has surged by 29.73% in the past week, with the main trend reverting upward. In the short term, there might be some retracement, but if it doesn’t fall below the support level of 2,400 baht, use it as a buying point to await short-term profit selling at the resistance level of 2,880 baht.

Support : 67 USD Resistance : 80 USD

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Trading and Investment Considerations For The Week

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Bitcoin has surged strongly, touching 2,045,000 THB, leading to a recovery in the Bitcoin Dominance Index. However, the upside potential for Bitcoin may be limited, with caution warranted regarding incoming selling pressure. Nevertheless, any retracement is unlikely to be severe, potentially presenting an opportunity for altcoins to move upwards.

Over the past week, the prices of DeFi coins have seen an upward adjustment following news from Uniswap, the leading DEX platform, amending its reward policy. This led to DeFi coins with lagging returns being picked up, as market sentiment or Bitcoin returns have been repeatedly profit-driven. It is possible that in the coming weeks, altcoins in other groups may also be picked up for profit-taking.

A trading strategy could involve buying coins that have recently experienced profit-taking but were previously sold off as funds flowed into other groups. For example, coins like WLD, OCEAN, and GRT may fit this profile. It’s anticipated that altcoins which were relatively laggard in the previous period may gradually adjust upwards following this trend. This could include categories like gaming tokens and metaverse assets, which have shown limited upward movement in the recent past.

Previously, Bitcoin prices have moved upward in the months leading up to a Bitcoin halving event. This is followed by a period of sideways movement before experiencing a full-fledged uptrend in the final quarter. Currently, there are no new negative factors expected to exert pressure on the cryptocurrency market. Investors with a higher risk tolerance can consider increasing their investment exposure.

This week, there was an announcement in the United States regarding the GDP forecast for the fourth quarter, expected to grow by 3.3%, a decrease from the previous quarter’s 4.9%. If this forecast materializes, it could bode well for the cryptocurrency market, as there is a chance the Federal Reserve may expedite interest rate cuts.

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